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There are two scenarios that have relatively low probabilities but are about equally likely:

1) Democrats, relying on many new and low-propensity voters, have been consistently understated in polls and are poised to make historic gains in the House and Senate.

2) Republicans will repeat their 2016 performance with suburbanites and beat the polls by a narrow but consistent margin sufficient to barely hold the House and make considerable gains in the Senate.

There’s also the highest probability scenario: That Democrats will flip enough Republican seats to take the House and take a relatively narrow majority of about a dozen seats but actually lose ground in the Senate, where Republicans seem well-positioned to add one or two seats to their current 51-seat majority.

We think that the split decision model makes the most sense and has the most evidence to support it. But then again, as Crash Davis said, “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains.” A little humility is never a bad idea in the business of predictions.

In that spirit, we offer a pair of changes to the Fox News Power Rankings. As always, you can see all our rankings here, but today please consider a couple of long shots that might see incumbents coming up short: New Jersey and Texas.

The races look remarkably similar from a distance. Both feature incumbents who are less popular than their parties in their respective states and both have seen an avalanche of spending against them not nearly commensurate with their competitiveness relative to other contests.

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